11/14/2022 0 Comments Fs global real weather torren![]() ![]() GCMs are also used to establish the role of human emissions in climate change. Reproduced with permission from Yale University Press. Note that island hot spots fall near the oceans line, while continental hot spots fall near the land line. Mean temperature change in the global biodiversity hot spots is indicated by red squares, for comparison. Temperature change over oceans at midlatitudes is less than temperature change over land owing to the heating properties of water and continental interiors. Blue circles indicate mean temperature change in the ocean at a latitude, green circles indicate mean temperature change over land for the latitude. Temperature versus latitude in a Hadley Center general circulation model (GCM) simulation for 2050 (A2 scenario). Global biodiversity hot spots and future temperature change. The RCM then takes coarse-resolution GCM inputs at its edges and turns them into a finer-scale regional climate simulation.įigure 2.23. The most common way for an RCM to be connected to global climate is to embed an RCM into a GCM. Because the climate of one region is connected to the climate of neighboring regions, RCMs cannot be run alone they must be connected to other regions in some way. Model runs of more than a week on a supercomputer are usually prohibitively expensive because the model must compete for other uses of the specialized computing facility, such as weather forecasting. This trade-off of resolution for geographic scope is required by the limits of computational time required to run the model. In exchange for higher resolution, RCMs must be run for regions, rather than for the whole planet, as their name implies. ![]() The scale of an RCM is measured in tens of kilometers, as opposed to hundreds of kilometers for most GCMs. The equation-based processing, cubes, and layers of the GCM are all present in an RCM but at finer scale. Regional climate models (RCMs) are very similar in structure to GCMs, but they capture finer-scale resolution of change in a particular region ( Figure 2.22). Because of these broader spatial and temporal scales, the resolution of GCMs must be much coarser than that of weather models to stay within the computational limits of modern computers. This process is similar to that for models used to forecast weather, except it is applied over broader spatial scales to capture global effects and on longer timescales to capture climate instead of weather. Energy and water vapor (or liquid) are passed between the cubes, allowing simulation of ocean currents and circulation in the atmosphere. The atmosphere and oceans are represented by thousands of these cubes, distributed 10–20 layers thick across the face of the planet and down into the oceans. Each set of equations is solved for a volume of air or water, typically with dimensions of hundreds of kilometers. GCMs represent atmospheric and ocean circulation in a series of equations describing physical properties of gases and fluids. ![]() These models are often referred to as GCMs because they simulate general atmospheric circulation patterns. ![]() Global climate models simulate climate changes across the entire planet. Although coastal zone management practices are critical in protecting the well-being of coral reefs in the near term, especially near population centers, over this century, global climate change and how humans mitigate this anthropogenic stress will determine the long-term survival of the most diverse marine environment on Earth. The coral holobiont does have some ability to adapt to these threats (e.g., some corals and zooxanthellae are more heat tolerant), but the potential for adaptation is limited, particularly given the rapid rate of global change. These predictions are not for the distant future, but for the near future, only a few decades away. If these scenarios are correct, then bleaching will be more frequent, more prolonged, and more lethal, and corals will find it harder and harder to lay down their skeletons ( Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). Nancy Knowlton, Jeremy Jackson, in Encyclopedia of Biodiversity (Second Edition), 2013 Dealing with Greenhouse Gas EmissionsĬlimate change models predict that tropical sea surface temperatures will continue to rise and pH will continue to fall. ![]()
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